نوع مقاله : پژوهشی
1 دانشیار مدیریت، دانشکده مدیریت دانشگاه تهران
2 استادیار، دانشگاه خاتم
3 دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت توسعه، دانشکده مدیریت دانشگاه تهران
عنوان مقاله [English]
Aim and introduction: Scenario planning is one of the new methods of strategy formulation in the age of complexity and critical uncertainties; Identifying uncertainties and formulating relevant strategies based on that in high-growth industries is of particular importance, through which organizations are prepared to face the complex environment. In the present study, Schwartz method has been utilized as the main scenario planning method in order to formulate a strategy for a company active in the electronic banking industry.
Methodology: In order to undertake the steps of Schwartz method, the approach adopted was qualitative approach, and research strategy was content analysis. Accordingly, 12 sessions were held in the form of focus groups, with a total of 315 people-hour allocated, with a group of academic experts and activists in the banking technology industry with a variety of specialties and experience of cooperation with this company.
Findings: After categorizing the verbal propositions, an initial list of 13 uncertainties was identified. Then three factors of uncertainties of sanctions (compatible interaction versus incompatible interaction), legislator behavior (mature legislator versus immature legislator) and industry competitors' behavior (cohesive industry versus dispersed industry) were selected as key uncertainties. Based on three selected key uncertainties, eight scenarios (number of key uncertainties to the power of two) were obtained. The eight scenarios with suggested solutions are as follows:
The First Scenario: incompatible interactive environment, immature legislator, cohesive industry
Suggested Solutions for the First Scenario:
• Development of products and services by adopting a partnership strategy in the form of a multilateral consortium with banks, financial and credit institutions and domestic banking IT companies.
• Leadership and organization of partnership networks with other industry players.
• Increase investment in research and development in the pursuit of new banking technologies.
• Reduce the time to provide products and services.
The Second Scenario: incompatible interactive environment, immature legislator, dispersed industry
Suggested Solutions for the Second Environment:
• Increase competitive advantage by investing in research and development.
• Increase the necessary preparation and infrastructure to create and lead partnerships with industry actors in order to enter the cohesive environment more rapidly.
The Third Scenario: incompatible interactive environment, mature legislator, cohesive industry
Suggested solutions for the third environment:
• Increase the speed of application of the production capacities of various systems in order to gain a leadership position and organize partnerships.
• Agility of the company in order to respond quickly to needs.
• Development of innovative products and services.
• Pay special attention and respond to the needs of current customers in order to increase their level of satisfaction.
The Fourth Scenario: incompatible interactive environment, mature legislator, dispersed industry
Suggested Solutions for the Fourth Scenario:
• Increase satisfaction and develop relationships with current customers in order to increase the number of orders in the future.
• Increase the cost of replacing the company for the customer by completing the service portfolio and providing complementary services.
• Increase the necessary preparedness and infrastructure to create and lead partnerships with industry actors.
• Identify and enter new domestic non-banking markets.
• Reduce the time to provide products and services.
The Fifth Scenario: compatible interactive environment, mature legislator, cohesive industry
Suggested Solutions for the Fifth Scenario:
• Establish partnerships with international banks and financial institutions, especially with reliance on local corporate knowledge.
• Making more use of infrastructure facilities and providing local knowledge, especially in the field of Fintech in order to provide distinctive services to banks.
• Establish partnerships with domestic competitors to maintain a competitive position.
• Providing new financial services on par with the international banking system.
The Sixth Scenario: compatible interactive environment, immature legislator, cohesive industry
Suggested Solutions for the Sixth Scenario:
• Market development by creating international consortia with the presence of companies from the target market, to operate and provide competitive services and products in overseas markets.
• Identify capable international companies for cooperation and knowledge transfer in the field of new banking technologies.
The Seventh Scenario: compatible interactive environment, mature legislator, dispersed industry
Suggested Solutions for the Seventh Scenario:
• Willingness to cooperate and interact constructively with other great actors, especially foreign actors.
• Focus on current customers and increase their level of satisfaction.
• Identify and enter new domestic and foreign markets.
The Eighth Scenario: compatible interactive environment, immature legislator, dispersed industry
Suggested solutions for the eighth scenario:
• Invest in research and development and increase competitiveness (especially in areas where indigenous knowledge is required)
• Increase the necessary preparation and infrastructure to create and lead partnerships with domestic and foreign companies.
Discussion and Conclusion: Scenario 2 (incompatible interactive environment, immature legislator, dispersed industry) can be considered as a pessimistic scenario. This situation should be taken into reconsideration in order to minimize the subsequent losses, especially investment in research and development, increased readiness and building necessary infrastructure to start partnerships and to enter the industry more rapidly. On the other hand, Scenario 5 (compatible interactive environment, mature legislator, cohesive industry) can be considered as an optimistic scenario. In this case, the supply and demand are developed in interaction with each other. In this environment, pursuing internal and external partnerships will remain one of the company's priorities; moreover, paying attention to FinTech (Financial Technology) in order to provide distinctive services would be highly profitable. Particularly with the entry of foreign competitors and their high capacity, taking advantage of local knowledge and proper use of it in the field of FinTech is considered as the fundamental competencies of the company.
by examining different scenarios, it is determined that several main axes can be seen in all of these scenarios, and it is suggested that by considering them simultaneously, the company would be more prepared to face different scenarios. These axes are as follows:
Create, develop and lead domestic and foreign partnerships
Invest in research and development
Excel in processes