نوع مقاله : پژوهشی
1 دکتری آینده پژوهی، مدرس دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی (ره)
2 دانشیار دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی (ره)
3 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی (ره)
عنوان مقاله [English]
Introduction and Aim: With increasing changes and the emergence of new issues in the global community, predicting the future in a changing world has become very difficult for planners. These changes and developments are basically the main problem in planning (Rashidardeh et al., 2017: 66). Visioning and planning to achieve it has always been one of the leading issues of organizations and identifying the factors affecting the future and awareness of the performance of the organization has led to the formation of strategic foresight knowledge. Strategic foresight, according to its capacities and capabilities, gives organizations the ability to identify wide-ranging changes and areas of progress, and by using this ability, provides organizations with appropriate strategies to deal with these changes (Sarpong et al., 2013).
The application of strategic foresight can lead to the formation of organizational outcomes such as value creation and learning that these outcomes play an important role in the future development of organizations (Vishnevskiy et al., 2015). However, it is questionable how application of Strategic Foresight can lead to organizational learning, followed by innovation and value creation in the organization.
Considering the importance of creating organizational learning and also the lack of studies in the field of how to influence strategic foresight capabilities in creating value and improving organizational performance through organizational learning, so the main issue of this study is to find how application of strategic foresight capabilities influences organizational performance by creating Learning and value creation; Therefore, the purpose of this article is to identify and examine the process by which the application of strategic foresight capabilities can affect organizational performance. At the same time, it expresses the role and relationship of strategic foresight with organizational learning and value creation.
Methodology: The present study is a descriptive correlational study based on structural equation modeling. The statistical population of the study includes experts and managers of Iran’s defensive organizations in which a simple random sampling method was used. A questionnaire (based on previous studies and standard questionnaires) and a five-point Likert scale were used to assess the research variables. To confirm the validity of the questionnaire by content method, the opinions of 10 experts were used. In the present study, among the different approaches of structural equations to fit the model with the research hypotheses, the structural path modeling method with partial least squares approach was used. Cronbach's alpha, combined reliability (CR) and factor loads were used to measure the reliability of the structures. For confirming reliability, Cronbach's alpha should be above 0.7, and finally the value obtained from Smart PLS software for Cronbach's alpha of the research questionnaire variables is equal to 0.950, which indicates the appropriate reliability of the questionnaire.
Findings: According to the first hypothesis test, strategic foresight has a positive and significant effect (t = 2.865> 1.96) on organizational learning. According to the second hypothesis test, organizational learning has a positive and significant effect (t = 5.207> 1.96) on value creation. According to the third hypothesis test, value creation has a positive and significant effect (t = 6.612> 1.96) on organizational performance. According to the fourth hypothesis test, organizational context and mindfulness have a positive and significant moderating role in strategic foresight (t = 2.663> 1.96) on organizational learning.
Discussion and Conclusion: The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of strategic foresight capabilities on organizational performance by considering the role of organizational learning and value creation in Iran defensive organizations. Analysis of the research results shows that the application of strategic foresight capabilities has a positive and significant effect on organizational learning, which is in line with the studies of Yoon et al. (2018), Bootz et al. (2019) and Rhisiart et al. (2015).. The results of the present study indicate that organizational learning has a positive and significant effect on value creation and as a mechanism, explains and facilitates the relationship between strategic foresight and value creation. Findings show that by creating organizational learning, followed by reducing uncertainty and increasing the ability to respond to increasing changes, long-term added value is created for organizations.
The results of this study also show that the variables of mindfulness and organizational context are effective in the relationship between the application of strategic foresight capabilities and organizational learning and have a positive moderating role in this regard, which is consistent with the results of Hemmati et al. (1398).
Analysis of research results shows that value creation (using strategic foresight capabilities) as an interface has a positive and significant effect on organizational performance which is in line with the results of Joneidi (2020), Joneindi et al., (2019) and Bhat and Arora (2018), with the difference that in this research, the role of organizational learning and value creation has not been studied and only in the research of Sullivan et al. (2012) The role of value creation in improving organizational performance is discussed.
Because value creation is a critical factor in measuring and evaluating organizational performance, defensive organizations are advised to consider ways to reduce the uncontrollable uncertainty created in the environment, increase their ability to respond in a timely manner, avoid threats, and seize opportunities. Also look for mechanisms to influence organizations, institutions, and other stakeholders to take action to increase the number and value of actions taken by other organizations and decision makers to help achieve their organizational goals.