Introduction:
Although emerging economies are considered important drivers of global economic growth, their industrial and commercial transformations are influenced by various political, technological, institutional, and market uncertainties. Under such conditions, scenario planning as a foresight approach provides the possibility of exploring alternative futures and enables policymakers and managers to adopt more flexible and proactive strategic decisions. The major challenge in Iran and similar emerging economies is the lack of an indigenous and scientific framework for strategic scenario analysis, which has resulted in reactive decision-making and increased vulnerability to environmental changes.
A review of previous studies indicates that most scenario planning studies have focused on developed economies, while the industrial-commercial dimensions of emerging economies have received relatively limited attention. Therefore, the present study aims to develop an integrated framework for scenario planning and strategic analysis of industrial-commercial scenarios in emerging economies and seeks to answer the question: What is the strategic position of industrial-commercial scenarios in emerging economies?

Methodology:
This study is applied in terms of its purpose and follows a survey-cross-sectional design regarding the method and time frame of data collection. A mixed exploratory research design (qualitative-quantitative) was employed to achieve the research objectives.
In the qualitative phase, using a futures research approach and strategic scenario planning method, key drivers, strategic uncertainties, and possible future pathways in the industrial-commercial domain were identified and analyzed. The research participants included managers and experts from the Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade of Iran, the Trade Promotion Organization of Iran, the Research Center of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, the Strategic Research Center of the Expediency Discernment Council, representatives of the Iranian Chamber of Commerce, and university professors specializing in economics and management.
Participants were selected through purposive sampling, and theoretical saturation was achieved after conducting 25 semi-structured interviews. In the strategic analysis phase, the perspectives of 9 senior managers and key experts from the Trade Promotion Organization of Iran were used. Data collection instruments included semi-structured interviews and a SWOT evaluation questionnaire.
In the qualitative stage, interview data were analyzed through thematic analysis, and key opportunities, weaknesses, driving forces, and challenges affecting the industrial-commercial future of emerging economies were extracted. Subsequently, using the SWOT framework and scenario planning approach, interactions among internal and external factors, driving forces, and strategic uncertainties were examined, and alternative future scenarios were developed. In the quantitative phase, SWARA was used to determine the weights of strategic factors, while SWOT analysis and the Quantitative Strategic Planning Matrix (QSPM) were applied to evaluate and prioritize the developed scenarios. Qualitative data analysis was conducted using MAXQDA software, and quantitative analysis was performed using Excel software.

Results and Discussion:
The findings from the internal and external factor evaluation matrices indicated that the strategic position of industrial-commercial scenarios in emerging economies is conservative (WO). This indicates that achieving industrial-commercial transformation requires utilizing environmental opportunities to compensate for and overcome existing internal weaknesses.
Based on the scenario development process, four conservative industrial-commercial scenarios were identified and developed:
Scenario One (WO1): “Digital Leap in the Vortex of Instability”
This scenario represents a future in which economic instability, exchange rate fluctuations, inconsistent monetary and fiscal policies, and weak coordination among institutions coexist with opportunities such as growing demand in emerging markets and the development of digital technologies. In this scenario, digital platforms, emerging technologies, and data-driven governance can serve as mechanisms for improving economic flexibility and reducing structural weaknesses.
Scenario Two (WO2): “Rise of Global Knowledge-Based Economy”
This scenario represents a future in which, despite challenges such as limited attraction and retention of elite human capital and weak national branding in global markets, opportunities arising from emerging market growth and increasing support for the knowledge-based economy create a pathway for industrial and commercial development. In this scenario, competitive advantage is based on knowledge, innovation, and human capital rather than natural resources. Strengthening knowledge-based companies, improving national branding, attracting skilled human resources, and developing technology-oriented exports are the main foundations of this scenario.
Scenario Three (WO3): “Bridge of Innovation and Global Interaction”
This scenario reflects a future where challenges such as institutional inefficiency, bureaucratic barriers, and limitations in human capital retention coexist with opportunities related to industrial and commercial tourism and the expansion of the knowledge-based economy. In this pathway, institutional reforms, business process facilitation, and stronger links among industry, knowledge, and international cooperation can enhance Iran’s position as an economic and technological interaction hub.
Scenario Four (WO4): “Green Flight on the New Silk Road”
This scenario depicts a future in which dependence on raw material exports and policy fragmentation are addressed through opportunities such as Iran’s geopolitical position in regional corridors and the expansion of green industries and renewable energy markets. In this scenario, movement toward value-added production, sustainable industries, and participation in regional value chains can contribute to long-term industrial transformation.
The results of scenario prioritization using the Quantitative Strategic Planning Matrix (QSPM) showed that the “Rise of Global Knowledge-Based Economy” (WO2) scenario achieved the highest strategic priority. The “Bridge of Innovation and Global Interaction” (WO3) scenario ranked second, followed by the “Green Flight on the New Silk Road” (WO4) and “Digital Leap in the Vortex of Instability” (WO1) scenarios, respectively.

Conclusion:
The findings indicate that the strategic development of industrial-commercial scenarios in emerging economies requires moving from resource-based development toward knowledge-based, innovative, and sustainable development pathways. The conservative strategic position identified in this study demonstrates that emerging economies should focus on utilizing external opportunities while simultaneously addressing institutional, technological, and structural weaknesses.
The prioritization results emphasize that strengthening knowledge-based capabilities, improving human capital development, expanding innovation ecosystems, enhancing regional economic interactions, and supporting sustainable industries are among the most important requirements for improving the industrial-commercial position of emerging economies.
Therefore, policymakers should adopt scenario-based strategic planning approaches and design flexible policies that enable economies to respond effectively to future uncertainties and enhance their competitiveness in emerging markets.