عنوان مقاله [English]
Aim and Introduction. Knowledge management is one of the most important issues in the field of management of organizations and media and knowledge management strategy has been closer to what model and components looking at the futurology. Making the desired changes and achieving the desired future in the field of knowledge management requires predicting the future in terms of recognizing the factors affecting change in this area. Identifying value-creating areas in the future of management sciences, counting knowledge transfer spaces in the future, recognizing the needs of future stakeholders, knowledge management and timely adaptation to change, are just some of the requirements and necessities of knowing the future. Despite the importance of the humanities among the various sciences, so far less attention has been paid to the issue of what is the future direction of knowledge management? What goals will knowledge management pursue in the future? What components influence changes in the field of knowledge management? What are the limitations of knowledge management that can affect the future research process in this field? What fruits will futurology bring to the field of knowledge management? We want to make better decisions using futurist knowledge and be able to have a greater impact on the future. Future research seeks to influence decisions and the components that influence decisions.
Methodology. The purpose of the research is applied and from the point of view of method and for data collection, descriptive method has been used to describe and make decisions about the existing conditions. In this research, semi-structured interviews with theme analysis approach were used. The aim of this research is to identify the initial ideas for developing theoretical models for future experimental research based on qualitative findings. Also, based on the research results, it is possible to identify ideas that can be used to conduct quantitative research with large statistical samples.
Due to the exploratory nature of this research, no hypothesis has been defined for it; the objectives of this research are determined by the following questions.
1) What are the opportunities and threats in knowledge management that affect the futurology in this field?
2) What are the future achievements of knowledge management research?
3) What effects will the futurology have on knowledge management?
4) What are the limitations and considerations of knowledge management in the futurology?
For the interview, 22 experts, including: professors, faculty members and senior managers of the Radio and Television Organization in Tehran, were selected by snowball method. The validity of the interview was confirmed, considering that the selected topics were counted using the opinions of experts. The retest method was also used to confirm the reliability of the interview; for this purpose, two of the interviews were coded and ten days after the first interview, the interviews were renewed. The similarity of the interviews was more than eighty percent. Instructions were provided for conducting the interviews. At the beginning of the interview, the general purpose of the interview communicated to the interviewee and it emphasized that the interview conducted for research purposes only and the identities of the individuals were kept completely secret. In order to conduct the interview, the method of storing information (through voice recording or taking notes) with the interviewee was coordinated. Therefore, in the present study, we have conducted in-depth interviews with experts, including the faculty members and senior media executives. A standard method used to end the sampling. Since the selected topics counted using the opinions of experts, the validity of the interviews confirmed and to confirm the reliability of the interviews by open method. Experiment has been used. According to the views presented in the research, knowledge management bias, complexities of human behavior and barriers to human cognition, the most important considerations affecting knowledge management on the futurology process have been identified.
Findings. Experts in this study believed that the most important considerations for the futurology in knowledge management were "knowledge management orientation", "complexities of human behavior" and "barriers to human cognition". Also the point of success of the futurology in this area, "realization of predictions", "achieving the desired future" and "promotion of future research knowledge" have been stated. The most important effects of the futurology include "predicting the future", "making desirable changes in the future" and "identifying the factors influencing future changes". Human beings and social institutions are the discussed element in knowledge management. This axis acquires and reads or acquires the knowledge that the researcher produces about him. Acquiring this knowledge is manifested in the type of his behavior and therefore changes his behavior. It is therefore difficult and sometimes impossible to regulate the behavior of such objects.
Discussion and Conclusion. Social phenomena, unlike natural phenomena, are constantly changing due to the active role of human beings in them; this is due to the confusion of human beings in making the right decisions and achieving their goals. Today's human behavior has increased. Considering that human beings have the ability of reason both in opinion and in practice, adequate knowledge of human beings faces obstacles. In other words, reason is the most important human activity and in all Activities, including hearing, seeing, cardiac observations, as well as generating concepts and propositions, inferences, evaluations, generalizations, references, corrections, repeated revisions, and certainty and practice are present. The resulting cognition has limitations. Therefore, managers must learn how to manage, with limited control and insufficient information. Perhaps one of the reasons pioneering knowledge management is that it seeks to create new knowledge. Organizations must be predictable, so the future of management depends on the allocation and consideration of appropriate strategies to deal with turmoil and uncertainty, and from predictable and efficient situations, the production of goods and services. Thus, the ability, flexibility and quick adaptation and skill building to meet the needs of the environment, felt and undoubtedly seems very necessary.
Also predicting the future, making desirable changes in the future, and identifying the causes of change are the most important effects of the futures research process on the management of knowledge in ICT, so that the application of future knowledge management to the national media (IRIB) enhances organizational learning, in the organization.