طراحی الگوی فرایندی تدوین راهبردی پابرجا در شرایط عدم قطعیت

نوع مقاله: علمی-

نویسندگان

1 عضو هیات علمی دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

2 عضو هیات علمی دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

3 پژوهشگر مرکز تحقیقات سیاست علمی کشور

4 کاندیدای دکتری مدیریت استراتژیک، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

چکیده

هدف این مقاله طراحی الگوی فرایندی تدوین راهبرد پابرجا با استفاده از نظریه شبکه و تکنیک الگوسازی ساختاری تفسیری است. الگوی پابرجا، نوع خاصی از راهبرد­ است که در برابر حالات مختلف محیطی همچنان مقبول و معنادار است و هر کدام از حالات ناپایدار محیطی که رخ دهد، این راهبرد پایدار است. این الگو ترکیبی از نُه تکنیک دیگر است. تکنیک­های نُه گانه عبارت اند از تصمیم­ گیری پابرجا، تحلیل ذی نفعان و برنامه­ ریزی راهبردی ذی نفع محور، برنامه ­ریزی برپایه مفروضات، تحلیل حالات و اثرات خطا، تحلیل درخت خطا، تحلیل مسایل بالقوه، تحلیل اثرات جانبی راه حل، برنامه­ ریزی حساس به عدم قطعیت، برنامه­ ریزی بر مبنای سناریو. علی­رغم نقاط قوت قابل توجه در هر کدام از فنون شناسایی شده، هیچ کدام از فنون کامل و جامع نیستند و این فنون می­ توانند به وسیله دیگر فنون تکمیل شوند. برای دستیابی به راهبرد پابرجا این فنون به صورتی نظام مند با یکدیگر ترکیب شده ­اند. ترکیب این فنون توسط الگوسازی ساختاری تفسیری صورت گرفته است. روش نمونه گیری، هدفمندِ غیرتصادفی است. انتخاب نمونه آماری از میان خبرگان و متخصصین به گونه­ ای صورت گرفته است که صلاحیت آنان بر اساس هفت شاخص و جامعیت دیدگاه­ های مختلف از طریق پنج شاخص احراز شود.
نتیجه پژوهش به صورت الگوی فرایندی تجویزی تنظیم و ترسیم شده است. این الگوی فرایندی، مسیر دستیابی به راهبرد پابرجا را به صورت گام ­به­ گام نشان می ­دهد. این الگو شامل پانزده فرایند­ فرعی­ است که توالی (تقدم و تاخر) آن­ها و همچنین ورودی، خروجی و بازخوردهای هر کدام از فرایندهای فرعی در این الگو مشخص شده­ اند. 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Designing the Process Model of Robust Strategy under Uncertainty

نویسندگان [English]

  • Seyyed Hamid Khodadad Hoseini 1
  • Mohammad Reza Hamidizadeh 2
  • Seyed Mohamoud Hoseini 2
  • Masoud Kassaee 2
  • Mojtaba LashkarBoloki 3 4
1 Associate Professor, Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University
2 Associate Professor, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Shahid Beheshti University
3 Researcher of The National Research Institute for Science Policy (NRISP) | Ph.D. Candidate of Strategic Management, Management and Accounting Dep., Shahid Beheshti University
4 Researcher of The National Research Institute for Science Policy (NRISP) | Ph.D. Candidate of Strategic Management, Management and Accounting Dep., Shahid Beheshti University
چکیده [English]

The purpose of this article is to develop a process model of robust strategy by using Interpretive Structural Modeling. Robust strategies are capable of performing well in a variety of possible future environments. This process model is combination of 9 other techniques. The techniques are Robust Decision making (RDM), Stakeholder Analysis (SA),Assumption Based Planning (ABP),   Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Potential Problem analysis (PPA), Solution Effect analysis (SEA), Change Impact Analysis, Uncertainty Sensitive Analysis (USP), and Scenario based planning (SBP). Critical comparative review of techniques demonstrated thatthese techniques are not complete, but provide a good starting point. In this article, these techniques were combined together in a systematic manner by using Interpretive Structural Modeling. The resultant prescriptive process model of robust strategy has 15 sub-processes. The sequence of sub-processes was specified and also the input, output, and feedback of each of them were obtained.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Robust Strategy
  • robustness
  • Uncertainty
  • Robust Decision Making
  • Interpretive structural modeling
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