آینده پیش‌روی صنعت بانکداری ایران با رویکرد سناریوپردازی

نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 پژوهشگاه شاخص پژوه، گروه مدیریت، اصفهان.

2 دانشگاه تهران.

3 مؤسسه عالی آموزش بانکداری ایران.

چکیده

در این پژوهش با استفاده از دو روش آینده‌نگاری یعنی تحلیل اثرات متقابل (برگذر) و سناریوپردازی، ابتدا به شناسایی و عوامل راهبردی مؤثر بر آینده صنعت بانکداری پرداخته و سپس سناریوهای عمده پیش­روی صنعت بانکداری بررسی و تحلیل می­شود. داده‌های اولیه پژوهش بااستفاده از نرم‌­ا‌فزار میک­مک تجزیه‌وتحلیل شده‌اند. در نهایت، نتایج به­‌کارگیری روش تحلیل تأثیرات متقاطع حاکی از آن است که 10 عامل کلیدی سودآوری، منابع و مصارف، دولت و اقتصاد، بهره و ذخیره قانونی، مطالبه­‌های معوق، کفایت سرمایه، تحریم‌ها، قوانین و مقررات، تسهیلات تکلیفی و فضای اقتصاد از میان عوامل شناسایی‌شده بیشترین تأثیر و تأثر را بر آینده صنعت بانکداری خواهند داشت. در ادامه این عوامل به­ عنوان پایه اصلی در سناریونویسی استفاده شد. به ­منظور سناریونگاری در این مرحله از کارشناسان متخصص نظرخواهی شد و با جمع‌بندی آن‌ها 31 وضعیت محتمل برای 10 عامل تعریف شد. وضعیت محتمل برای هر عامل طیفی از وضعیت‌های نامطلوب تا مطلوب را پوشش می‌داد. با تحلیل‌های انجام ­شده توسط نرم‌افزار سناریو ویزارد، 5 سناریوی قوی و 9 سناریوی باورکردنی براساس 31 وضعیت محتمل مربوط به 10 پیشران کلیدی استخراج شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Banking Industry's Future ahead with Scenario-based Planning Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Habibollah Rashid Ardeh 1
  • Saeed Khazaei 2
  • Mohammad Vali Moghadam Zanjani 3
1 Pajhoo Institute, Management Group, Esfahan, Iran
2 University of Imam Hussein, Management Group, Tehran, Iran.
3 Institute of Banking Training, Iran.
چکیده [English]

In This article by using Foresight methods as cross impact balance and the scenario planning to identify strategic factors affecting the banking industry discussed the future And then the major scenarios ahead the banking industry are compiled and analyzed. Initial research data have been analyzed by using the mic mac software. The results obtained from the use of CIB showed that 10 key operating profitability, resources and expenditures, government and the economy, interest and reserve requirements, payments, capital adequacy, sanctions, laws and regulations, duty facilities and environment of economic uncertainty among identified factors will have the greatest impact and influence on the future of the banking industry, these basic factors used in scenario planning. In order to scenario planning at this stage of experts were consulted and ultimately the sum of 31 possible positions for 10 factors were defined. Possible position for any of a variety of situations covered unfavorable to favorable. An analysis performed by the scenario wizard software, 5 strong scenarios and 9 believable scenarios of based on 31 possible positions on the 10 key driving was extracted.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • banking industry
  • Future Study
  • Scenario Planning
  • Cross -Impact Analysis

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