سیاست‌گذاری مهار تلفات جاده‌ای در کشور

نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه شهیدبهشتی

2 دانشگاه سمنان

چکیده

     واقعیت‌ها نشان می‌دهد که در همه جای دنیا سه عامل انسان، راه و خودرو نقش تعیین‌کننده‌ای در وقوع تلفات جاده‌ای دارند؛ اما درصد تأثیر آنها برای کشورهای مختلف متفاوت است. هدف این پژوهش، شناسایی عوامل و متغیرهای اصلی تلفات جاده‌ای در ایران و سپس توسعه یک مدل شبیه‌سازی پویایی‌شناسی سیستم است. پویایی‌شناسی سیستم، روشی برای درک و تجزیه‌­وتحلیل بهتر مسائل پیچیده، درهم‌تنیده، غیرخطی و پویا در سیستم‌های اجتماعی است که می‌تواند به طراحی ساختار و سیاست‎های جدیدی برای بهبود رفتار سیستم‌ها کمک کند. ازآنجاکه مسئله پیش‌بینی تصادفات و تلفات جاده‌ای، دربرگیرنده سیستم‌های پیچیده و متنوعی از جمله: انسان، راه و خودرو و بسیاری عوامل محیطی دیگر می‌شود، طراحی مدل شبیه‌سازی پویا برای درک روابط بین این سیستم‌ها در کشور ضروری به نظر می‌رسد که می‌تواند منجر به تکامل ارائه راه‌حل‌هایی پایدار برای تضمین ایمنی جاده‌ها شود. در این پژوهش از نرم‌­افزار شبیه‌سازی ونسیم استفاده و داده‌های حمل و نقل، تصادفات، بزرگ­راه‌ها و نیروی پلیس از منابع دولتی جمع‌آوری شده است. مدل با توجه به سناریوهای تمامی راهبردهایی که برای بهبود وضعیت می‌توان ارائه داد شامل: سیاست بهبود امدادرسانی جاده‌ای، سیاست بهبود کیفیت خودرو و راه و سیاست افزایش حضور پلیس در جاده‌ها، توسعه داده شده است و بااستفاده از سوابق موجود از داده‌های واقعی تصادفات و تلفات، اعتباریابی شده است. براساس نتایج شبیه‌سازی، سیاست‎های اعمال­ شده در کوتاه‌مدت کاملا موثر واقع شده‌اند و عامل انسانی مهمترین عامل در وقوع تصادفات مشاهده شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Setting Policy for Road Fatalities Reduction in Country by using System Dynamics Method

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Reza Hamidizadeh 1
  • Mohsen Shafiei Nikabadi 2
  • Reihaneh Naderi 2
1 Shahid Beheshti University
2 Semnan University
چکیده [English]

     Everywhere in the world, three factors including: human, road and vehicle (car), have decisive role in road accidents, although their effects may be different for different countries. Also each of mentioned factors has a variety of aspects. In this paper, first the assumptions and variables involved in road fatalities is identified, then causal and flow diagrams and the complete model are explained, then by using system dynamics method and simulation via Vensim software according to collected data, several policies were proposed for reducting road accidents’ fatalities. All of improving strategies like: improving road relief, improving car and road quality, and increasing police presence on the roads, have been applied on dynamic model. Based on simulation results, human factor is the most important factor in ocurring accidents, investment on this area can play a major role in reducing the number of victims in accidents. Training correct traffic culture from childhood and using helpful spots, is one of the useful solution which has showed its effect on the model. Also at the same time this can reduce time of matching with new rules for drivers. According to simulation resultas, all of mentioned policies are effective in decreasing accidents’ victims specially for short-time period due to considering standards as constant amounts for simplifying the assumption. The best strategy in long term, is reducing attractiveness of road travels by allocating budgets to other means of transportation.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Road Fatalities
  • system dynamics
  • Policy

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