پویایی شوک تغییرات قیمت بنزین: سیاست تثبیت یا تغییر تدریجی

نوع مقاله : ‌علمی

نویسنده

دکتری مدیریت فناوری اطلاعات (گرایش کسب و کار هوشمند) از دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

چکیده

بنزین با کارکرد کالای استراتژیک هم بر دولت و هم بر جامعه تأثیر زیادی دارد. لذا دولت تعیین­کننده‌ قیمت بنزین در ایران به دلیل اینکه تغییر قیمت بنزین دارای اثرات اقتصادی، سیاسی، اجتماعی، فرهنگی، زیست محیطی است، همواره با چالش­های متعددی در رابطه با قیمت بنزین مواجه بوده است. در سال‌های اخیر سیاست‌های مختلفی از جمله تغییر تدریجی، تغییر یکباره و سمهیه­بندی بنزین اتخاذ شده است که هر یک از آنها تبعات مختلفی را به همراه داشته است. از طرف دیگر قیمت بنزین هم از عوامل مختلفی تأثیر می‌پذیرد و هم تأثیر می‌گذارد. لذا درک ساختار حاکم بر قیمت‌گذاری بنزین و سیاست‌های تغییر قیمت در کشور و اثرات آن ضروری می‌باشد. برای این منظور از رویکرد پویایی­شناسی سیستم‌ها یک روش حل مسئله کل­نگر و پویا برای ترسیم ساختار حاکم بر قیمت‌ بنزین و بررسی و شبیه‌سازی اثر سیاست‌های مختلف بر رفتار مدل در این مقاله استفاده شده است. نتایج شبیه‌سازی مدل نشان داد که سیاست قیمت‌گذاری تدریجی با فرض تورم‌زا نبودن تغییر قیمت دلار و بنزین به میزان تورم سال قبل، مناسب بوده و وقتی این فرض برقرار نباشد سیاست تثبیت قیمت مناسب است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Dynamics of Petrol Price Changes Shock: A Policy of Stabilizing or Gradual Changing

نویسنده [English]

  • Ali Haji Gholam Saryazdi
PhD. In IT Management at Tarbiat Modares University (Business Intelligence)
چکیده [English]

As a strategic commodity, petrol has a profound effect on both government and society. Therefore, the government as the determinant of petrol price in Iran because of the petrol price changes have economic, political, social, cultural, environmental effects has always been challenged with respect to petrol prices. In recent years, various policies have been adopted, including gradual change, one-off change, and petrol sequestration, each with different consequences. On the other hand, the price of petrol is influenced by various factors as well. Therefore, it is essential to understand the structure of petrol pricing and price change policies in the country and its effects. For this purpose, the system dynamics approach is used as a holistic and dynamic problem solving method to model the structure governing petrol price and to investigate and simulate the effect of different policies on model behavior in this paper. The model simulation results showed that the gradual pricing policy was appropriate with the assumption that the dollar and petrol price did not change with inflation the year before and that the price stabilization policy was not appropriate.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Document Model Building (DMB)
  • System dynamics approach
  • Petrol Price
  • Stabilizing Policy
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