ارائه یک مدل پویایی‌شناسی سیستم‌ها برای پیش‌بینی جمعیت دانش‌آموزان ابتدایی و متوسطه اول کشور و برنامه‌ریزی فضای مدارس این مقاطع

نوع مقاله: مستخرج از پایان نامه

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران

2 دانشکده مهندسی صنایع، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

نظام تعلیم و تربیت یکی از نهادهای اصلی جامعه است که به تأمین نیروی انسانی مؤثر می­پردازد. اولین گام برای اجرای برنامه­های آموزشی، داشتن فضای مناسب و کافی است. هم­اکنون کمبود قابل توجهی در منابع آموزشی کشور وجود دارد. با توجه به هدف افزایش پوشش تحصیلی در اسناد چشم­انداز کشور، لازم است برای تأمین منابع آموزشی برنامه­ریزی نمود. در این پژوهش جمعیت کل دانش­آموزان کشور در مقطع ابتدایی و متوسطه اول با استفاده از شبیه‌سازی پویای سیستمی تا سال 1420­ پیش­بینی شده و سپس سیاست­های مختلف مرتبط با بودجه­ی تخصیص‌یافته به سازمان نوسازی، توسعه و تجهیز مدارس مورد بررسی قرارگرفته است. نتایج گویای آن است که چنانچه رفتار باروری مطابق حال حاضر پیش برود، جمعیت دانش­آموزان در سال­های پیش رو افزایش خواهد یافت و پس از گذراندن بیشینه خود در دهه 1400، سیر نزولی خواهد داشت. چنان­چه بودجه اختصاص یافته به ساخت مدارس، رقمی مطابق با مقدار اعلام شده برای سال 1398 داشته باشد، با کاهش جدی در سرانه مساحت فضای آموزشی مواجه خواهیم شد. در سناریوی بودجه دو برابر این مقدار، این کاهش کمتر از یک متر­مربع و در سناریوی بودجه 3 برابر، پس از 5 سال، سرانه آموزشی مدارس کشور بهبود خواهد یافت.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Dynamic Forecasting of Student Population and School Space Planning in the Country

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mir Saman Pishvaee 1
  • Sayyedeh Sara Moosavi 2
1 Iran University of Science and Technology
2 School of Industrial Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology,Tehran,Iran
چکیده [English]

The education system is one of the main infrastrations of society that provides effective human resources. The first step in implementing training programs is to have a suitable and sufficient space. There is currently a significant shortage of educational resources in the country. Given the goal of increasing academic coverage in the country's vision documents, it is necessary to plan for the provision of educational resources. In this study, the total population of primary and secondary school students in the country is predicted using dynamic system simulation until 1420, and then various policies related to the budget allocated to the Organization for Renovation, Development and Equipping of Schools Has been reviewed. The results suggest that if fertility behavior continues as it is now, the student population will increase in the coming years and will decline after its peak in the 1400s. If the budget allocated for the construction of schools has a figure in accordance with the amount announced for the year 1398, we will face a serious decrease in the per capita area of ​​educational space. In a budget scenario twice this amount, the per capita education will be less than one square meter, and in a budget scenario 3 times, after 5 years, the per capita education of the country's schools will improve.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Student Population
  • Educational Area Per Capita
  • Budget of Building Schools
  • system dynamics
  • Aging Chain
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