بررسی تأثیر سیاست هدف‌گذاری تورم بر مدیریت نرخ ارز در کشورهای در حال توسعه

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه پیام نور

2 دانشگاه پیام نور تهران غرب

چکیده

یکی از مسائل اصلی اقتصاد کشورهای در حال توسعه مدیریت صحیح نرخ ارز است، به‌طوری‌که ارزش‌گذاری کمتر یا بیشتر از سطح تعادلی نرخ ارز باعث بی­ثباتی و عدم تعادل­ها در اقتصاد کلان به‌ویژه در حوزه­ی صادرات و واردات، سطح عمومی قیمت­ها و بازارهای مالی می­شود. از این‌رو، سیاست‌گذاران اقتصادی در پی دستیابی به راهکارهایی هستند که آ‌ن‌ها را قادر سازد نرخ ارز را در مسیر صحیح آن هدایت کنند. از مهم­ترین این عوامل، نرخ تورم است. در پژوهش حاضر به بررسی تأثیر سیاست هدف‌گذاری تورم بر مدیریت نرخ ارز در گروه منتخب کشورهای در حال توسعه طی دوره زمانی 2017-2000 به روش رگرسیونی داده­های تابلویی پرداخته است. نتایج تجربی نشان داد که انحراف تورم از نرخ هدف‌گذاری شده آن باعث انحرافات نرخ ارز حقیقی از سطح تعادلی آن می­شود. همچنین، تغییرات نرخ تورم در دنیای خارج، تغییرات نرخ ارز اسمی و تغییرات تراز حساب جاری منجر به انحراف نرخ ارز از سطح تعادلی آن می­شود اما اثرات تغییرات جریان سرمایه بر انحراف نرخ ارز از سطح تعادلی آن از نظر آماری معنادار نبود. اما اثرات تعاملی نشان داد که سیاست هدف‌گذاری تورمی نقش معناداری در اندازه­ی تأثیرگذاری تغییرات نرخ ارز اسمی، نرخ تورم داخلی و نرخ تورم خارجی بر انحرافات نرخ ارز حقیقی از سطح تعادلی آن ندارد. اما این سیاست منجر می­شود نقش تغییرات حساب جاری و حساب سرمایه در افزایش انحرافات نرخ ارز حقیقی از سطح تعادلی آن به صورت معناداری کاهش یابد. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Impact of Inflation Targeting Policy on Currency Management in Developing Countries

نویسندگان [English]

  • negin veisi 1
  • Hassan Makhmali 2
  • parvaneh kamali 1
1 payam noor
2 Payam Noor University, Economics Department, College of Tehran-West
چکیده [English]

of the main issues in the developing countries is the correct management of the exchange rate, so that less or more evaluation than the equilibrium exchange rate causes instability and imbalances in macroeconomics, especially in the field of exports and imports, the general level of prices And financial markets. Hence, economic policymakers are seeking solutions that will enable them to steer the exchange rate in the right direction. The most important of these factors is inflation. this study, the effect of inflation targeting policy on exchange rate management in the selected developing countries during the period 2000-2017 by the method of panel data has been investigated. Experimental results showed that the deviation of inflation from its target rate caused real exchange rate deviations from its equilibrium level. Also, changes in the rate of inflation in the outside world, changes in the nominal exchange rate and current account balance changes lead to a deviation of the exchange rate from its equilibrium level, but the effects of changes in capital flow on the exchange rate deviation from its equilibrium level were not statistically significant. But interactive effects showed that the inflation targeting policy played a significant role in measuring the impact of changes in the nominal exchange rate, domestic inflation and external inflation on real exchange rate deviations from Its balance rate. But this policy leads to a significant reduction in the role of current account and capital account changes in increasing the real exchange rate deviations from its equilibrium level.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Real Exchange rate
  • Equilibrium Exchange rate
  • Inflation Targeting
  • Inflation
  • Developing Countries

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فصلنامه مطالعات مدیریت راهبردی
دوره 10، شماره 38
شهریور 1398
صفحه 207-235

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 20 مرداد 1398
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 10 مهر 1398
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 30 شهریور 1398

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